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		<title>Influencing High School Graduation Rates &#8211; Part I</title>
		<link>https://www.athenasworkshop.com/influencing-high-school-graduation-rates/</link>
		<comments>https://www.athenasworkshop.com/influencing-high-school-graduation-rates/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Nov 2018 02:33:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Helen Levy-Myers]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.athenasworkshop.com/?p=831</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Our nation graduates only 84.1% of its high school students and that is too low for a nation that wants to advance economically and technologically. The US releases graduation data for every year, but only collects and releases data from the Department of Education Office for Civil Rights every other year (2015-16 is the latest &#91;...&#93;]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Our nation graduates only 84.1% of its high school students and that is too low for a nation that wants to advance economically and technologically. The US releases graduation data for every year, but only collects and releases data from the Department of Education Office for Civil Rights every other year (2015-16 is the latest year) which includes interesting data like the number students that studied biology, chemistry, physics, algebra or geometry, enrolled in an AP class, took the SAT or ACT test, participate in high school sports, reported being bullied or harassed, number of teachers that are chronically absent or lack a teaching certificate, students that are chronically absent or receive in-school suspensions, out-of-school suspensions, expulsions, and most of this data is then broken down by gender, ethnic group, and disability status.</p>
<p>The Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA) has a new Fifth Indicator variable by which to evaluate and judge individual schools and districts, which is 20% of the total score. This Indicator is a non-academic variable as the other 80% of the school’s score reflects the school’s academic results. The Fifth Indicator is supposed to be a metric that includes all students and reflects “school quality” or “student success.” Each state chose a different combination of variables. This research choose to look at some of these Fifth Indicator variables to see if they influence graduation, the most important goal of K-12 education.</p>
<h2><strong>The Data</strong></h2>
<p>The Department of Education graduation data provides Adjusted Cohort Graduation Rates (ACGR) for 23,090 high schools. The Office for Civil Rights (OCR) data has 96,360 pre-schools, elementary, middle, high schools, juvenile justice, alternative, special education, and charter schools with 1,836 variable including bullying, teacher-student ratio, certification, absenteeism, sports participation, and more divided by gender, ethnicity, LEP, and 504 subsets.</p>
<h2><strong>Enrollment</strong></h2>
<p><img class=" wp-image-834 alignleft" src="https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/201516-School-Enrollment-by-Size-300x229.png" alt="" width="491" height="374" srcset="https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/201516-School-Enrollment-by-Size-150x114.png 150w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/201516-School-Enrollment-by-Size-200x153.png 200w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/201516-School-Enrollment-by-Size-300x229.png 300w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/201516-School-Enrollment-by-Size-400x305.png 400w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/201516-School-Enrollment-by-Size.png 556w" sizes="(max-width: 491px) 100vw, 491px" /><br />
A quick look at high school enrollment shows that the mean high school enrollment has less than 1,000 students and that the largest number of schools enroll the smallest number of students. Each bar in the chart represents 100 students, and there are about 1,300 high schools with 100 or fewer students. The most significant thing to consider about very small high schools is that they have small staffs and most likely do not have the range of subjects or advanced classes that would be available at a larger high school.</p>
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<h2><strong>AP Class Participation</strong></h2>
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<p><img class=" wp-image-832 alignleft" src="https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-AP-Class-Participation-Rate-300x229.png" alt="" width="469" height="358" srcset="https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-AP-Class-Participation-Rate-150x114.png 150w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-AP-Class-Participation-Rate-200x153.png 200w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-AP-Class-Participation-Rate-300x229.png 300w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-AP-Class-Participation-Rate-400x305.png 400w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-AP-Class-Participation-Rate.png 556w" sizes="(max-width: 469px) 100vw, 469px" /><br />
The OCR data tracks how many students take one or more AP classes, plus the number that take AP classes in chemistry, physics, math, and other subjects, which student take the AP exam, pass with a 3 or higher, and how many fail the AP exam, broken down by gender, ethnicity and disability. The mean enrollment rate for taking at least one AP class is 9%. AP classes do involve more obligations. Both parents and students must be committed to the additional studies necessary to enroll in an advanced class that is similar to a college introductory class. Principals and school superintendents have to hire teachers that can teach college level curriculum and there must be enough students who have completed the lower level math, science and language arts to fill an advanced class.</p>
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<h2><strong>Sports Participation</strong></h2>
<p><img class=" wp-image-833 alignleft" src="https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-Sports-Participation-Rate-300x229.png" alt="" width="466" height="356" srcset="https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-Sports-Participation-Rate-150x114.png 150w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-Sports-Participation-Rate-200x153.png 200w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-Sports-Participation-Rate-300x229.png 300w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-Sports-Participation-Rate-400x305.png 400w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-Sports-Participation-Rate.png 556w" sizes="(max-width: 466px) 100vw, 466px" /></p>
<p>The OCR also tracks how many students participate in a high school sport. It is more than three times the number that enroll in an AP class. Of course, being a coach of sports team does not require a teaching certification. Many former high school sports stars coach high school teams to stay involved with the sport and for enjoyment.</p>
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<h3><strong>Next Blog</strong></h3>
<p>The next blog post will examine the relationship between some of these variables and graduation rates.</p>
<h3><strong>Links to the data:</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://www2.ed.gov/about/inits/ed/edfacts/data-files/acgr-sch-sy2013-14.csv" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://www2.ed.gov/about/inits/ed/edfacts/data-files/acgr-sch-sy2013-14.csv</a><br />
<a href="https://www2.ed.gov/about/inits/ed/edfacts/data-files/acgr-sch-sy2015-16.csv" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://www2.ed.gov/about/inits/ed/edfacts/data-files/acgr-sch-sy2015-16.csv</a><br />
<a href="https://www2.ed.gov/about/offices/list/ocr/docs/crdc-2013-14.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://www2.ed.gov/about/offices/list/ocr/docs/crdc-2013-14.html</a><br />
<a href="https://www2.ed.gov/about/offices/list/ocr/docs/crdc-2015-16.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://www2.ed.gov/about/offices/list/ocr/docs/crdc-2015-16.html</a></p>
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		<item>
		<title>Influencing High School Graduation Rates &#8211; Part II</title>
		<link>https://www.athenasworkshop.com/influencing-high-school-graduation-rates-part-ii/</link>
		<comments>https://www.athenasworkshop.com/influencing-high-school-graduation-rates-part-ii/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Nov 2018 02:06:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Helen Levy-Myers]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.athenasworkshop.com/?p=864</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The most important goal of the public K-12 education system is a high school diploma. However, the US adjusted cohort graduation rate is only 84.1%[1]. South Korea[2] and Finland[3] graduate 93% of their high school students, a more significant percentage of students. This research looked at three different variables from the Department of Education Office &#91;...&#93;]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The most important goal of the public K-12 education system is a high school diploma. However, the US adjusted cohort graduation rate is only 84.1%<a href="#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1">[1]</a>. South Korea<a href="#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2">[2]</a> and Finland<a href="#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3">[3]</a> graduate 93% of their high school students, a more significant percentage of students.</p>
<p>This research looked at three different variables from the Department of Education Office for Civil Rights (OCR) bi-annual data and its correlation to high school graduation rates. The Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA) has a new Fifth Indicator variable by which to evaluate and judge individual schools and districts, which is 20% of the total score. This Indicator is a non-academic variable as the other 80% of the school’s score reflects the school’s academics. Three quarters of the states choose chronic absenteeism or attendance as one of its metrics<a href="#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4">[4]</a>, and three quarters of the states also choose to measure career or college readiness, such as a minimum score on an SAT or ACT test or access to higher level, advanced courses. Three states, Connecticut, Vermont and Michigan for K-8 only<a href="#_ftn5" name="_ftnref5">[5]</a>, also include physical education as part of their Fifth Indicator and that is also examined.</p>
<h2><strong>The Data</strong></h2>
<p>The Department of Education graduation data provides Adjusted Cohort Graduation Rates (ACGR) for 23,090 high schools. The four year ACGR is the number of students who graduate in four years or less with a regular high school diploma divided by the number of students who formed the cohort for that graduating class, starting in 9<sup>th</sup> grade. However, to protect student privacy, if there are less than 5 students in the cohort, no data is provided and for cohorts less than 200, a range is given. The smaller the cohort the wider the range will be. When a range is given, this research assumed the average number of the range.</p>
<p>The Office for Civil Rights (OCR) data has 96,360 pre-schools, elementary, middle, high schools, juvenile justice, alternative, special education, and charter schools with 1,836 variable including bullying, teacher-student ratio, certification, absenteeism, sports participation, and more divided by gender, ethnicity, LEP, and 504 subsets.</p>
<p>Each dot on the charts represents a single high school’s graduation rate on the y axis and the chronic absenteeism, AP class participation rate or sports participation rate on the x axis. The solid line is the linear regression, and the national Adjusted R Squared value is at the top of each chart.</p>
<h2><strong>Chronic Absenteeism</strong></h2>
<p>Previous research has identified chronic absenteeism as highly correlated to lower academic achievement and graduation rates. The federal standard for chronic absenteeism in this data set is a student chronically absent for missing 15 school days in a school year. Many states have adopted a slightly different standard of missing 10% of the school year or 18 days in a typical 180 school year.</p>
<p>This research shows a negative correlation between high school graduation rates and chronic absenteeism. The downward slopping liner regression means that the higher the chronic absenteeism rate the lower the graduation rate. Although some regression lines are steeper than others, this negative relationship is true in every state in the Union.<img class="alignnone wp-image-874 size-full" src="https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-Chronic-Absenteeism-Grad-Rate-plot.png" alt="" width="1723" height="956" srcset="https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-Chronic-Absenteeism-Grad-Rate-plot-150x83.png 150w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-Chronic-Absenteeism-Grad-Rate-plot-200x111.png 200w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-Chronic-Absenteeism-Grad-Rate-plot-300x166.png 300w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-Chronic-Absenteeism-Grad-Rate-plot-400x222.png 400w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-Chronic-Absenteeism-Grad-Rate-plot-600x333.png 600w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-Chronic-Absenteeism-Grad-Rate-plot-768x426.png 768w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-Chronic-Absenteeism-Grad-Rate-plot-800x444.png 800w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-Chronic-Absenteeism-Grad-Rate-plot-1200x666.png 1200w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-Chronic-Absenteeism-Grad-Rate-plot.png 1723w" sizes="(max-width: 1723px) 100vw, 1723px" /></p>
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<h2><strong>AP Class Participation Rate</strong></h2>
<p>Enrolling in a class in high school that represents the work and skills needed for an introductory college class has a positive relationship with graduation. This metric does not include whether a student took the AP exam, passed with the exam with 3 or higher, failed the exam, or if the AP class was in a science or math. This metric is only the percentage of students at the school that took at least one AP class. AP class participation positively influences higher graduation rates, and although a few states seem to have flat lines, the overall trend seems to be that it does make a difference towards greater high school graduation rates.<img class="alignnone wp-image-861 size-full" src="https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-AP-Class-Participation-Rate-Grad-Rate-plot.png" alt="" width="1712" height="935" srcset="https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-AP-Class-Participation-Rate-Grad-Rate-plot-150x82.png 150w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-AP-Class-Participation-Rate-Grad-Rate-plot-200x109.png 200w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-AP-Class-Participation-Rate-Grad-Rate-plot-300x164.png 300w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-AP-Class-Participation-Rate-Grad-Rate-plot-400x218.png 400w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-AP-Class-Participation-Rate-Grad-Rate-plot-600x328.png 600w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-AP-Class-Participation-Rate-Grad-Rate-plot-768x419.png 768w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-AP-Class-Participation-Rate-Grad-Rate-plot-800x437.png 800w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-AP-Class-Participation-Rate-Grad-Rate-plot-1200x655.png 1200w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-AP-Class-Participation-Rate-Grad-Rate-plot.png 1712w" sizes="(max-width: 1712px) 100vw, 1712px" /></p>
<h2><strong>Sports Participation Rate</strong></h2>
<p>About a third of students participate in a high school sport and it also seems to have a positive influence on graduation rates. This seemed to be one of the more surprising relationships with graduation, but being part of high school sports team teaches many life lessons. Athletes are often an important representative of their school and community, generating pride in themselves. They develop teamwork and collaboration skills, learn the value of practice and self-discipline. It’s fun and enjoyable and in many states the right to be on a team requires daily attendance at school, acting as a brake on chronic absenteeism. Three states, District of Columbia, Montana and South Dakota did show a negative relationship, but those three states are smaller than average, so a few schools can have skew the results.<img class="alignnone wp-image-863 size-full" src="https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-Sports-Participation-Rate-Grad-Rate-plot.png" alt="" width="1706" height="937" srcset="https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-Sports-Participation-Rate-Grad-Rate-plot-150x82.png 150w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-Sports-Participation-Rate-Grad-Rate-plot-200x110.png 200w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-Sports-Participation-Rate-Grad-Rate-plot-300x165.png 300w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-Sports-Participation-Rate-Grad-Rate-plot-400x220.png 400w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-Sports-Participation-Rate-Grad-Rate-plot-600x330.png 600w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-Sports-Participation-Rate-Grad-Rate-plot-768x422.png 768w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-Sports-Participation-Rate-Grad-Rate-plot-800x439.png 800w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-Sports-Participation-Rate-Grad-Rate-plot-1200x659.png 1200w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2015-16-Sports-Participation-Rate-Grad-Rate-plot.png 1706w" sizes="(max-width: 1706px) 100vw, 1706px" /></p>
<h2><strong>Links to the data:</strong></h2>
<p>https://www2.ed.gov/about/inits/ed/edfacts/data-files/acgr-sch-sy2013-14.csv</p>
<p><a href="https://www2.ed.gov/about/inits/ed/edfacts/data-files/acgr-sch-sy2015-16.csv">https://www2.ed.gov/about/inits/ed/edfacts/data-files/acgr-sch-sy2015-16.csv</a></p>
<p>https://www2.ed.gov/about/offices/list/ocr/docs/crdc-2013-14.html</p>
<p><a href="https://www2.ed.gov/about/">https://www2.ed.gov/about/</a>offices/list/ocr/docs/crdc-2015-16.html</p>
<h2><strong>Footnotes:</strong></h2>
<p><a href="#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1">[1]</a> http://www.americaspromise.org/</p>
<p><a href="#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2">[2]</a> https://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=6293334&amp;page=1</p>
<p><a href="#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3">[3]</a> https://www.businessinsider.com/finland-education-school-2011-12#teachers-are-selected-from-the-top-10-of-graduates-19</p>
<p><a href="#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4">[4]</a> https://www.the74million.org/article/educators-hoped-essas-5th-indicator-would-paint-a-clearer-picture-of-student-success-but-with-some-states-now-choosing-up-to-11-different-measures-experts-worry-results-ar/</p>
<p><a href="#_ftnref5" name="_ftn5">[5]</a> https://www.the74million.org/article/educators-hoped-essas-5th-indicator-would-paint-a-clearer-picture-of-student-success-but-with-some-states-now-choosing-up-to-11-different-measures-experts-worry-results-ar/</p>
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		<slash:comments>30</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Influencing High School Graduation Rates &#8211; Part III</title>
		<link>https://www.athenasworkshop.com/influencing-high-school-graduation-rates-part-iii/</link>
		<comments>https://www.athenasworkshop.com/influencing-high-school-graduation-rates-part-iii/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 26 Nov 2018 20:03:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Helen Levy-Myers]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.athenasworkshop.com/?p=879</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The US national graduation rate is 84.1%. However, it is estimated that a “90 percent high school graduation rate would likely create more than 65,000 new jobs and boost gross domestic product by $11.5 billion annually.”[1] Certainly a worthy goal and one that would compound for each graduating class. Currently only two states, Iowa and &#91;...&#93;]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The US national graduation rate is 84.1%. However, it is estimated that a “90 percent high school graduation rate would likely create more than 65,000 new jobs and boost gross domestic product by $11.5 billion annually.”<a href="#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1">[1]</a> Certainly a worthy goal and one that would compound for each graduating class.</p>
<p>Currently only two states, Iowa and New Jersey have a 90% high school graduation rate.<a href="#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2">[2]</a> The big question for this research became: could a model be developed to predict graduation rates and could the model’s variables be changed to predict a 90% graduation rate for individual high schools.</p>
<h2><strong>The Data</strong></h2>
<p>The Department of Education graduation data provides Adjusted Cohort Graduation Rates (ACGR) for 23,090 high schools. The four year ACGR is the number of students who graduate in four years or less with a regular high school diploma divided by the number of students who formed the cohort for that graduating class, starting in 9<sup>th</sup> grade. However, to protect student privacy, if there are less than 5 students in the cohort, no data is provided and for cohorts less than 200, a range is given. The smaller the cohort the wider the range will be. When a range is given, this research assumed the average number of the range.</p>
<p>The Office for Civil Rights (OCR) data has 1,836 variables including bullying, teacher-student ratio, certification, absenteeism, sports participation, and more divided by gender, ethnicity, LEP, and 504 subsets.</p>
<h2><strong>The Model</strong></h2>
<div id="attachment_882" style="width: 610px" class="wp-caption alignright"><img class="wp-image-882 size-600" src="https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/95-Confidence-Interval-11.26.18-600x468.png" alt="" width="600" height="468" srcset="https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/95-Confidence-Interval-11.26.18-150x117.png 150w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/95-Confidence-Interval-11.26.18-200x156.png 200w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/95-Confidence-Interval-11.26.18-300x234.png 300w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/95-Confidence-Interval-11.26.18-400x312.png 400w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/95-Confidence-Interval-11.26.18-600x468.png 600w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/95-Confidence-Interval-11.26.18-768x599.png 768w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/95-Confidence-Interval-11.26.18-800x624.png 800w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/95-Confidence-Interval-11.26.18.png 973w" sizes="(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px" /><p class="wp-caption-text">95% Confidence Intervals of several variables that influence US high school graduation rates.</p></div>
<p>Of the many different variables, 12 were chosen to measure their correlation with graduation rates. On the chart, the 95% confidence intervals are plotted. If the 95% confidence interval includes the zero dotted line, one can assume with 95% confidence that the variable has zero influence on graduation rates. Three variables included zero, teacher/student ratio, harassment/bully allegation ratio, biology class enrollment. Three other variables were very close to zero, but did not include it, teacher absenteeism, in-school suspension rate, and money per student spent on activities. Of the remaining six, this research choose to focus on three variables, chronic absenteeism and AP class participation most strongly influenced graduation and sports participation also seems to be an important positive influence on graduation rates.</p>
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<h2><strong>Model Prediction</strong></h2>
<p>If a school principal or district is to use the model, it must be a simple model. Complicated models are hard to remember and focus on, simple models can be implemented. Rather than use all six variables, this research focused on three that had significant influence. The model shows the result below with several related metrics. <img class="wp-image-885 size-full alignnone" src="https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Model-and-metrics-11.26.18.png" alt="" width="1089" height="130" srcset="https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Model-and-metrics-11.26.18-150x18.png 150w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Model-and-metrics-11.26.18-200x24.png 200w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Model-and-metrics-11.26.18-300x36.png 300w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Model-and-metrics-11.26.18-400x48.png 400w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Model-and-metrics-11.26.18-600x72.png 600w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Model-and-metrics-11.26.18-768x92.png 768w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Model-and-metrics-11.26.18-800x96.png 800w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Model-and-metrics-11.26.18.png 1089w" sizes="(max-width: 1089px) 100vw, 1089px" /></p>
<p>In order to test the model, three high schools were chosen that had less than 90% graduation. John F. Kennedy High School was chosen as it one of the lower performing high schools in Montgomery County, Maryland, a wealthy suburb of Washington, DC. H.D. Woodson High School in Washington, DC has previously been identified as a high school with an improving graduation rate in the District of Columbia Public Schools system, which has historically low graduation rates. South Lakes High School is a graduation rate similar to the Virginia state rate. The three high schools also have different enrollments, John F. Kennedy High School has about 1,500 students; H.D. Woodson has about 775 students and South Lakes High School has about 2,400 students.</p>
<div id="attachment_883" style="width: 810px" class="wp-caption alignright"><img class="wp-image-883 size-800" src="https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Actual-and-Predicted-Graduations-11.26.18-800x452.png" alt="" width="800" height="452" srcset="https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Actual-and-Predicted-Graduations-11.26.18-150x85.png 150w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Actual-and-Predicted-Graduations-11.26.18-200x113.png 200w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Actual-and-Predicted-Graduations-11.26.18-300x169.png 300w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Actual-and-Predicted-Graduations-11.26.18-400x226.png 400w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Actual-and-Predicted-Graduations-11.26.18-600x339.png 600w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Actual-and-Predicted-Graduations-11.26.18-768x434.png 768w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Actual-and-Predicted-Graduations-11.26.18-800x452.png 800w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Actual-and-Predicted-Graduations-11.26.18.png 1032w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /><p class="wp-caption-text">Predicted vs. Actual Graduation Rates for three high schools, South Lakes High School, H.D. Woodson High School, and John F. Kennedy High School.</p></div>
<p>The chart shows the predicted graduation rate using the model and the actual graduation rate as reported by the Department of Education. The last three columns show if a 90% prediction rate was possible and how close it could be to 90%.</p>
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<h2><strong>90% Prediction</strong></h2>
<div id="attachment_884" style="width: 810px" class="wp-caption alignright"><img class="wp-image-884 size-800" src="https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Changes-to-Achieve-90-Graduation-11.26.18-800x649.png" alt="" width="800" height="649" srcset="https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Changes-to-Achieve-90-Graduation-11.26.18-150x122.png 150w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Changes-to-Achieve-90-Graduation-11.26.18-200x162.png 200w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Changes-to-Achieve-90-Graduation-11.26.18-300x243.png 300w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Changes-to-Achieve-90-Graduation-11.26.18-400x325.png 400w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Changes-to-Achieve-90-Graduation-11.26.18-600x487.png 600w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Changes-to-Achieve-90-Graduation-11.26.18-768x623.png 768w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Changes-to-Achieve-90-Graduation-11.26.18-800x649.png 800w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Changes-to-Achieve-90-Graduation-11.26.18.png 1019w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /><p class="wp-caption-text">Changes Necessary to Achieve 90% Graduation . Estimates for three high schools</p></div>
<p>This chart shows what a specific school would have to change to achieve a predicted 90% graduation rate. All of them would have to increase of students that participate in a high school sport by 250 students. They would all have to increase the number of students taking AP classes. All the schools would have to make a greater effort to reduce chronic absenteeism among their student populations. However, the good news is that all these changes are possible and within the range what could be expected over the next three years, if school administrators and leaders devoted the time, money and energy to the effort.</p>
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<h2><strong>Links to the data:</strong></h2>
<p><a href="https://www2.ed.gov/about/inits/ed/edfacts/data-files/acgr-sch-sy2013-14.csv">https://www2.ed.gov/about/inits/ed/edfacts/data-files/acgr-sch-sy2013-14.csv</a></p>
<p><a href="https://www2.ed.gov/about/inits/ed/edfacts/data-files/acgr-sch-sy2015-16.csv">https://www2.ed.gov/about/inits/ed/edfacts/data-files/acgr-sch-sy2015-16.csv</a></p>
<p><a href="https://www2.ed.gov/about/offices/list/ocr/docs/crdc-2013-14.html">https://www2.ed.gov/about/offices/list/ocr/docs/crdc-2013-14.html</a></p>
<p><a href="https://www2.ed.gov/about/offices/list/ocr/docs/crdc-2015-16.html">https://www2.ed.gov/about/offices/list/ocr/docs/crdc-2015-16.html</a></p>
<h2><strong>Notes:</strong></h2>
<p><a href="#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1">[1]</a> <a href="http://gradnation.americaspromise.org/about">http://gradnation.americaspromise.org/about</a></p>
<p><a href="#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2">[2]</a><a href="http://gradnation.americaspromise.org/"> http://gradnation.americaspromise.org/</a></p>
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		<title>The Difference in DC High School Graduation Rates</title>
		<link>https://www.athenasworkshop.com/the-difference-in-dc-high-school-graduation-rates/</link>
		<comments>https://www.athenasworkshop.com/the-difference-in-dc-high-school-graduation-rates/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Mar 2018 00:51:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Helen Levy-Myers]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.athenasworkshop.com/?p=787</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Washington DC public schools (DCPS) are going through a crisis as the reality of high school graduation standards hits home. For the 2017 graduation year, “900 of 2,758 students who graduated from a D.C. public school last year either failed to attend enough classes or improperly took makeup classes.” Eventually, the FBI along with &#91;...&#93;]]></description>
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						<div class="fusion-text"><p>Washington DC public schools (DCPS) are going through a crisis as the reality of high school graduation standards hits home. For the 2017 graduation year, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/answer-sheet/wp/2018/02/01/the-shocking-thing-about-d-c-s-exploding-schools-scandal-and-why-it-has-national-significance/?utm_term=.a8aaa20887ad">“900 of 2,758 students</a> who graduated from a D.C. public school last year either failed to attend enough classes or improperly took makeup classes.” Eventually, the<a href="http://wjla.com/features/faking-the-grade/faking-the-grade-fbi-now-investigating-dcs-ballou-high-school"> FBI along with the US Department of Education and the DC Office of Inspector General</a> started an investigation into grade inflation and attendance because federal education funding is often tied to academic achievement and attendance.</p>
<p><strong>Results:</strong></p>
<p>On the other hand, nobody it seems was investigating DC charter schools, which are publicly funded, draw on the same population and <a href="http://www.dcpcsb.org/">educate 46% of DC public school students.</a> This research looked at DCPS and charter school graduation rates over the past six years. In the chart below, each individual high school has its graduation rate over six years shown as a black line. Additionally, each school has been compared to other schools in its funding source, other charters in pink, other DCPS in blue. The colored line shows the average graduation rates for all schools of each funding type weighted by cohort size. The colored ribbon shows two standard deviations (representing approximately 95%) of the graduation rate, weighted by cohort size.</p>
<p><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-790" src="https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/DC-grad-rates-plot-3.10.18-e1521444282289.png" alt="2017 DC high school graduation rates by individual school" width="1899" height="994" srcset="https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/DC-grad-rates-plot-3.10.18-e1521444282289-150x79.png 150w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/DC-grad-rates-plot-3.10.18-e1521444282289-200x105.png 200w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/DC-grad-rates-plot-3.10.18-e1521444282289-300x157.png 300w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/DC-grad-rates-plot-3.10.18-e1521444282289-400x209.png 400w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/DC-grad-rates-plot-3.10.18-e1521444282289-600x314.png 600w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/DC-grad-rates-plot-3.10.18-e1521444282289-768x402.png 768w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/DC-grad-rates-plot-3.10.18-e1521444282289-800x419.png 800w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/DC-grad-rates-plot-3.10.18-e1521444282289-1200x628.png 1200w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/DC-grad-rates-plot-3.10.18-e1521444282289.png 1899w" sizes="(max-width: 1899px) 100vw, 1899px" /></p>
<p><strong>Discussion:</strong></p>
<p>A few interesting things to note. Only three schools over the past six years that were below average climbed to above average in their graduation rates, Capital City PCS, Cesar Chavez PCS for Public Policy – Parkside, and H.D. Woodson High School. But most schools that were above average stayed above average and those that were below average, remained below average. With three schools that have improved graduation over an extended time, the public knows it can be done. This is an opportunity for other schools to learn what they are doing right and to also change the direction of graduation rates.</p>
<p><strong>Successful Schools:</strong></p>
<p>There are several high performing DCPS schools with graduation rates usually above 90%. These all have a special application process in addition to a random lottery. Benjamin Banneker High School which had a 100 % graduation rate five of the past six years is a magnet high school with an application process based on grades, test scores and recommendations; admission is not based on a random drawing or neighborhood residency as most of public school admissions are. Schools Without Walls, McKinley Technology High School, Phelps Architecture, Construction and Engineering High School also have an admission process based on academics, standardized testing and interviews. Duke Ellington School for the Arts requires an audition plus standardized testing, school records and interviews. DCPS does have high schools that educate students as well as any suburban high school, and they do it by cherry picking the students through an application process that leaves many behind in low performing neighborhood schools.</p>
<p><strong>Low Performing Schools:</strong></p>
<p>Unfortunately, there were several low performing schools, that had graduation rates at the bottom or even below two standard deviations. <a href="http://www.balloustay.com/">Ballou STAY High School</a> was founded as an alternative high school and its motto is “It’s Never Too Late to Earn Your High School Diploma.” About <a href="http://profiles.dcps.dc.gov/pdf/462%2015-16.pdf">92% of its students are 18 years or older</a>; it serves mostly students who have dropped out previously and are returning for a diploma, certificate or GED. <a href="http://www.seeforever.org/the-maya-way/our-beginnings/">Maya Angelou PCS High School</a> was founded to provide a “holistic program to teens involved in the juvenile justice system.” <a href="http://profiles.dcps.dc.gov/Luke+C.+Moore+High+School">Luke C. Moore High School,</a> like all DCPS, publishes data that may hint at why its graduation rates are so low and headed in the wrong direction. Moore’s in-seat attendance is 55%, 78% of their students are truant, and students are clearly voting with their feet &#8211; the school’s reenrollment (do students come back the next year or choose another option) is 57%. A comparison of a handful of schools is below. Six years of previous data is not publicly available.</p>
<div id="supsystic-table-1_57297" class="supsystic-tables-wrap " style=" width: 100%; " ><div class="supsystic-tables-features"></div><table id="supsystic-table-1" class="supsystic-table border cell-border " data-id="1" data-view-id="1_57297" data-title="2016-17 School Year" data-currency-format="$1,000.00" data-percent-format="10%" data-date-format="DD.MM.YYYY" data-time-format="HH:mm" data-features="[&quot;after_table_loaded_script&quot;,&quot;import&quot;]" data-head="on" data-head-rows-count="1" data-pagination-length="50,100,All" data-auto-index="off" data-searching-settings="{&quot;minChars&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-lang="default" data-override="{&quot;emptyTable&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;info&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;infoEmpty&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;infoFiltered&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;lengthMenu&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;search&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;zeroRecords&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;exportLabel&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;file&quot;:&quot;default&quot;}" data-merged="[]" data-responsive-mode="0" data-from-history="0" ><thead><tr><th data-cell-id="A1" data-x="0" data-y="1" class="" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="" data-order="" style="min-width: 46.7505%; width: 46.7505%;" ></th><th data-cell-id="B1" data-x="1" data-y="1" class="htRight" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="In-Seat Attendance" data-order="In-Seat Attendance" style="min-width: 19.4969%; width: 19.4969%;" > In-Seat Attendance </th><th data-cell-id="C1" data-x="2" data-y="1" class="htRight" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="Truancy" data-order="Truancy" style="min-width: 12.9979%; width: 12.9979%;" > Truancy </th><th data-cell-id="D1" data-x="3" data-y="1" class="htRight" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="School Reenrollment" data-order="School Reenrollment" style="min-width: 20.7547%; width: 20.7547%;" > School Reenrollment </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr ><td data-cell-id="A2" data-x="0" data-y="2" class="" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="Anacostia High School" data-order="Anacostia High School" > Anacostia High School </td><td data-cell-id="B2" data-x="1" data-y="2" class="htRight" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="63%" data-order="63%" > 63% </td><td data-cell-id="C2" data-x="2" data-y="2" class="htRight" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="69%" data-order="69%" > 69% </td><td data-cell-id="D2" data-x="3" data-y="2" class="htRight" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="76%" data-order="76%" > 76% </td></tr><tr ><td data-cell-id="A3" data-x="0" data-y="3" class="" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="Cardoza Educational Campus" data-order="Cardoza Educational Campus" > Cardoza Educational Campus </td><td data-cell-id="B3" data-x="1" data-y="3" class="htRight" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="75%" data-order="75%" > 75% </td><td data-cell-id="C3" data-x="2" data-y="3" class="htRight" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="62%" data-order="62%" > 62% </td><td data-cell-id="D3" data-x="3" data-y="3" class="htRight" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="83%" data-order="83%" > 83% </td></tr><tr ><td data-cell-id="A4" data-x="0" data-y="4" class="" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="IDEA PCS" data-order="IDEA PCS" > IDEA PCS </td><td data-cell-id="B4" data-x="1" data-y="4" class="htRight" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="88%" data-order="88%" > 88% </td><td data-cell-id="C4" data-x="2" data-y="4" class="htRight" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="n/a" data-order="n/a" > n/a </td><td data-cell-id="D4" data-x="3" data-y="4" class="htRight" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="73%" data-order="73%" > 73% </td></tr><tr ><td data-cell-id="A5" data-x="0" data-y="5" class="" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="Luke C. Moore High School" data-order="Luke C. Moore High School" > Luke C. Moore High School </td><td data-cell-id="B5" data-x="1" data-y="5" class="htRight" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="55%" data-order="55%" > 55% </td><td data-cell-id="C5" data-x="2" data-y="5" class="htRight" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="78%" data-order="78%" > 78% </td><td data-cell-id="D5" data-x="3" data-y="5" class="htRight" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="57%" data-order="57%" > 57% </td></tr><tr ><td data-cell-id="A6" data-x="0" data-y="6" class="" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="Woodrow Wilson High School" data-order="Woodrow Wilson High School" > Woodrow Wilson High School </td><td data-cell-id="B6" data-x="1" data-y="6" class="htRight" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="83%" data-order="83%" > 83% </td><td data-cell-id="C6" data-x="2" data-y="6" class="htRight" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="54%" data-order="54%" > 54% </td><td data-cell-id="D6" data-x="3" data-y="6" class="htRight" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="90%" data-order="90%" > 90% </td></tr><tr ><td data-cell-id="A7" data-x="0" data-y="7" class="" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="" data-order="" ></td><td data-cell-id="B7" data-x="1" data-y="7" class="htRight" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="" data-order="" ></td><td data-cell-id="C7" data-x="2" data-y="7" class="htRight" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="" data-order="" ></td><td data-cell-id="D7" data-x="3" data-y="7" class="htRight" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="" data-order="" ></td></tr><tr ><td data-cell-id="A8" data-x="0" data-y="8" class="" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="Average" data-order="Average" > Average </td><td data-cell-id="B8" data-x="1" data-y="8" class="htRight" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="78%" data-order="78%" > 78% </td><td data-cell-id="C8" data-x="2" data-y="8" class="htRight" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="54%" data-order="54%" > 54% </td><td data-cell-id="D8" data-x="3" data-y="8" class="htRight" data-cell-type="text" data-original-value="84%" data-order="84%" > 84% </td></tr></tbody></table><!-- /#supsystic-table-1.supsystic-table --></div><!-- /.supsystic-tables-wrap --><!-- Tables Generator by Supsystic --><!-- Version: 1.9.4 --><!-- http://supsystic.com/ -->
<p><span id="more-787"></span></p>
<p><strong>Conclusion: </strong></p>
<p>The table and chart show that there is good news and bad news for both DCPS and charters. DCPS does have successful schools, using a selection process that gathers the best students in special programs. Poor performing schools, like Anacostia, Ballou, Cardoza, and Moore, tend to have low attendance and engagement. H.D. Woodson shows that even traditional neighborhood schools can raise graduation rates significantly by making steady progress year after year. Cesar Chavez PCS for Public Policy – Parkside has also gone from below average to above average performance through consistent improvements, year after year. There are potentially many reasons why these schools have a different trajectory than other schools, different school leadership, new curriculum, changing school demographics, but additional study will be needed to uncover the factors that lead to these schools’ success.</p>
<p>Thank you to Reuben Levy-Myers and Julian Levy-Myers for their help and advice.</p>
<p><strong>Notes:</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://osse.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/osse/publication/attachments/Adjusted%20Cohort%20Graduation%20Rate%20Overview%202015-16.pdf">The Adjusted Cohort Graduation Rate</a> is the number of students who graduate in four years with a regular high school diploma divided by the number of students who form the adjusted cohort for the graduating class. For any given cohort, students who are entering ninth grade for the first time form a cohort that is subsequently “adjusted” by adding any students who transfer into the cohort later during the next three years and subtracting any students who transfer out, emigrate to another country, or are deceased during that same period.</p>
<p>The graduation rates are publicly available from the <a href="https://osse.dc.gov/service/high-school-graduation-rates-0">DC Office of the State Superintendent of Education</a>. To be included in this research, a high school had to have graduation rates for all of the previous six years. Capital City Upper PCS, Maya Angelou PCS – Shaw, Eastern, Springarn, IDEAL, KAMIT, William E. Doar Jr., Young America Works, Booker T. Washington, and Options were closed during the time period. BASIS DC PCS, Cesar Chavez PCS – Chavez Prep, Goodwill Excel Center, Perry Street Prep, SEED PCS, Paul PCS, E.L. Haynes , Richard Wright PCS all had fewer than 25 students and their graduation results were not publicly available for privacy reasons.</p>
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		<title>May is Asthma and Allergy Awareness Month</title>
		<link>https://www.athenasworkshop.com/may-is-asthma-and-allergy-awareness-month/</link>
		<comments>https://www.athenasworkshop.com/may-is-asthma-and-allergy-awareness-month/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 May 2018 22:52:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Helen Levy-Myers]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.athenasworkshop.com/?p=809</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Every year, on beautiful spring days, you can see a yellow-green dust on your car windshield in the morning. That’s pollen and it makes spring the peak season for those with allergies and asthma to have breathing problems. Asthma is the most common chronic disease among children today with more than 6 million children under &#91;...&#93;]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Every year, on beautiful spring days, you can see a yellow-green dust on your car windshield in the morning. That’s pollen and it makes spring the peak season for those with allergies and asthma to have breathing problems.</p>
<p><a href="https://cvp.ucsf.edu/docs/asthma_factsheet.pdf">Asthma is the most common chronic disease among children</a> today with <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/asthma.htm">more than 6 million children under 18 having asthma</a>. It is associated with more than <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4914465/">10 million missed school days annually</a>, making it an important cause of chronic absenteeism. <a href="https://www3.epa.gov/airnow/asthma-flyer.pdf">Poor air quality can make asthma symptoms worse</a> and trigger attacks and <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3151648/">80% of children</a> have asthma triggered by allergies.</p>
<p>The purpose of this research was to look at US Air Quality Index (AQI) data and see if a relationship can be seen between daily air quality values and chronic absenteeism in public schools. The good news is that more than three quarters of US air has AQI values of 49 or less, meaning the air quality is considered good and whatever air pollution is out there poses little or no risk to people. The bad news is that a pattern exists between hazardous AQI and chronic absenteeism on K-12 schools. Eight states recorded hazardous AQI on at least one day during the two years examined, and in five states (Arizona, California, Hawaii, Montana, and Nevada), the county with the worst chronic absenteeism also recorded hazardous air. In Washington, New Mexico and Idaho, the county with the worst chronic absenteeism did not also have hazardous air.</p>
<p>A problem common to any large data set is how to deal with outlier values. More than 75% of AQI values are below 50 which is good, but very rarely, air quality is hazardous and exceeds 3,000. Including the rare 3,000 reading would mean that most readings below 50 would look like a flat line and making the visualization of the data not effective. To eliminate the outlier values would negate the purpose of this research to see patterns of poor air quality and chronic absenteeism. Any reading over 300 is considered hazardous. A decision was made to make all values higher than 349 (which is hazardous) equal to 350. This is still considered hazardous air, however the plot does not show how hazardous individual readings might be.</p>
<p>To examine the research, use the drop down menu to select a state. The plots show the 2015 and 2016 Daily AQI by county in each state. AQI measures five different pollutants, ozone, carbon monoxide, PM2.5, sulfer dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide. AQI measures range from Good (green), Moderate (yellow), Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (orange), Unhealthy (red), Very Unhealthy (purple), and Hazardous (maroon). The red vertical lines show September 1 to May 31, approximately the 2015-16 school year. Because AQI are generally highest during warmer months, values to the left of the first line are in August, generally one of the hottest months in the US. It is also common time for forest fires which generate pollutants and poor air quality. It is a noticeable pattern in Oregon. The counties are ranked by chronic absenteeism rate, weighted to reflect total enrollment. Lower rates mean fewer students missing school (good), and more students regularly attending school (better). Not all counties have AQI monitoring sites, and only counties with AQI monitoring sites are included in the graph.</p>
<p><iframe src="https://hlevymyers.shinyapps.io/schoolaqishinyapp/" width="1200" height="1200" frameborder="“0”"></iframe></p>
<p>It is just the first step of looking at this data in combination with chronic absenteeism numbers. More research will need to be done to answer questions in detail. Of course, health in schools is more than good outdoor air quality. <a href="https://healthyschoolscampaign.org">Healthy Schools Campaign,</a> a national organization working on promoting student health and school wellness, agrees that healthy school environments are a key part of the solution to this crisis. Regular access to school health services (including physical, mental, dental, vision and behavioral services), healthy school food, physical activity and good indoor air in a clean and well-maintained building can have a tremendous impact on students’ achievement at school and on their lifelong wellness.</p>
<p>Sources:<br />
https://aqs.epa.gov/aqsweb/airdata/download_files.html#Daily<br />
https://www2.ed.gov/about/offices/list/ocr/docs/crdc-2015-16.html</p>
<p>Tags: Allergy, Asthma, AQI, chronic absenteeism, pollen, air quality</p>
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		<title>Four Years of Chronic Absenteeism</title>
		<link>https://www.athenasworkshop.com/four-years-of-chronic-absenteeism/</link>
		<comments>https://www.athenasworkshop.com/four-years-of-chronic-absenteeism/#respond</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Feb 2018 02:17:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Helen Levy-Myers]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.athenasworkshop.com/?p=778</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Knowing how something changes over time can alter how we think about the topic. Are our efforts useful or not? Are there other factors making it change? Is it changing in the “right” direction? The US Department of Education data on chronic absenteeism was first collected during the 2013-14 school year and released in June &#91;...&#93;]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Knowing how something changes over time can alter how we think about the topic. Are our efforts useful or not? Are there other factors making it change? Is it changing in the “right” direction? The US Department of Education data on chronic absenteeism was first collected during the 2013-14 school year and released in June 2016. That one year is the only national available data.</p>
<p>California has been collecting and publicly releasing chronic absenteeism data for the last four years. Using this data, I wanted to see how chronic absenteeism has changed.</p>
<p>California Attorney General Kamala Harris “did pioneering work with her sample data which shined a spotlight on the problem before she was elected to the U.S. Senate” said David Kopperud, Chairperson, California School Attendance Review Board. Harris and her agency collected data on elementary school chronic absenteeism believing that stopping the problem of truancy early would help address the problem of teen delinquency later, a criminal justice issue. “Since then, statewide data was collected for the first time in the 2016-17 school year in the CALPADS End of Year Collection,” said Kopperud. However, this is the first year of its collection and some data quality issues have come up that have delayed the final release of data until after March 2018. For example, 246 schools reported 100% attendance, including 83 San Francisco Unified School District schools.</p>
<p>California has not only local school districts, but County Boards of Education which supervise the many local school districts, charter schools, community colleges, etc. in each of the 58 counties. This data is only for elementary schools by county.</p>
<p>In the chart below, chronic absenteeism for four school years are graphed from 2011-12 (black dot) to 2014-15 (lightest gray dot). The average of the four years is the red dot. The difference of the 2014-15 chronic absenteeism rate and the 2011-12 rate is the green dot, which is then stack ranked from largest decrease (a negative number) to the largest increase (a positive number). The dark vertical line is zero on the horizontal axis, and the point where county chronic absenteeism rates change from negative, decreasing chronic absenteeism rates to positive, increasing chronic absenteeism county rates.</p>
<div id="attachment_781" style="width: 310px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img class="size-medium wp-image-781" src="https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/California-chronic-absenteeism-plot-300x159.png" alt="" width="300" height="159" srcset="https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/California-chronic-absenteeism-plot-200x106.png 200w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/California-chronic-absenteeism-plot-300x159.png 300w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/California-chronic-absenteeism-plot-400x213.png 400w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/California-chronic-absenteeism-plot-600x319.png 600w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/California-chronic-absenteeism-plot-768x408.png 768w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/California-chronic-absenteeism-plot-800x425.png 800w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/California-chronic-absenteeism-plot-1024x544.png 1024w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/California-chronic-absenteeism-plot-1200x638.png 1200w, https://www.athenasworkshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/California-chronic-absenteeism-plot.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /><p class="wp-caption-text">Trend data of chronic absenteeism rates from 2011 &#8211; 2015 for all California counties</p></div>
<p>A few interesting things to note. Despite the worries of Los Angeles about chronic absenteeism, the county is approximately at the state median in terms of chronic absenteeism; however San Francisco is in the bottom 10 percent of the state and as a city with great wealth, giving it possibly many resources, should be addressing this issue more seriously. A geographic oddity, Mono, the county at the top of the ranking with the greatest reduction in chronic absenteeism is a rural county bordering Nevada; and on its southern border is Inyo, at the bottom of the list, also a rural county bordering Nevada that has had the greatest increase in chronic absenteeism. About one in five counties have decreasing chronic absenteeism rates over the four years and further research should examine what those 12 counties are doing right.</p>
<p>This data comes from the <a href="https://oag.ca.gov/truancy">“In School + On Track” Repor</a>t.</p>
<p>Tags: chronic absenteeism, attendance, truancy, SFUSD, LAUSD, Mono, Inyo</p>
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		<title>Relationship between Chronic Absenteeism &#038; Opioid Prescription Rates</title>
		<link>https://www.athenasworkshop.com/relationship-between-chronic-absenteeism-opioid-prescription-rates/</link>
		<comments>https://www.athenasworkshop.com/relationship-between-chronic-absenteeism-opioid-prescription-rates/#respond</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Dec 2017 10:25:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[nimesha]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.athenasworkshop.com/?p=662</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This code was put together to see if there is a relationship between chronic absenteeism among K-12 public and charter school students and opioid prescription rates. Chronic absenteeism is shockingly high among kindergartners and 1st graders. At that age, the reasons that young students do not show up at school at that age is &#91;...&#93;]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><div class="fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling"  style='background-color: rgba(255,255,255,0);background-position: center center;background-repeat: no-repeat;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;'><div class="fusion-builder-row fusion-row "><div  class="fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion_builder_column_1_1  fusion-one-full fusion-column-first fusion-column-last 1_1"  style='margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:20px;'>
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						<div class="fusion-text"><p>This code was put together to see if there is a relationship between chronic absenteeism among K-12 public and charter school students and opioid prescription rates. Chronic absenteeism is shockingly high among kindergartners and 1st graders. At that age, the reasons that young students do not show up at school at that age is often a reflection of parental issues, lack of transportation, homelessness, etc. Adults in severe pain taking prescription opioid medicine may also be less engaged in their childrenbs academic lives. According to the NIH Medline Plus about 5% of those who use opioid medicines over a year will develop a physical addiction to opioids and babuse the drugs, or give them to others. Long-term daily use of opioids leads to physical dependence, which is not to be confused with addiction disorder.b</p>
<p>This research is to see if there is a statistical relationship between these two important crises.</p>
<p>The data comes from the <a href="https://www2.ed.gov/about/offices/list/ocr/docs/crdc-2013-14.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Department of Education Office for Civil Rights</a> which for the 2013-2014 school year asked about chronic absenteeism for the first time. In this data set, chronic absenteeism was defined as a student absent for 15 or more school days. <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/drugoverdose/maps/rxcounty2016.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Centers for Disease Control </a> produce data on prescription opioid data annually. The data comes from the most recent year available, 2016. The author wants to thank Reuben Levy-Myers, graduate student at Johns Hopkins University for his review and suggestions</p>
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						<div class="fusion-text"><h2>The Code</h2>
<pre class="style-two"><code>## 
## Attaching package: 'dplyr'</code></pre>
<pre class="style-two"><code>## The following objects are masked from 'package:stats':
## 
##     filter, lag</code></pre>
<pre class="style-two"><code>## The following objects are masked from 'package:base':
## 
##     intersect, setdiff, setequal, union</code></pre>
<p>This blog includes two charts looking at this relationship. The CDC publishes its prescription data by county and FIPS and the Department of Education has its data by district and individual school, NCES ID and their complete street address. A separate education data file has individual schools with NCES IS, FIPS and a LOCALE indicator, to identify if a school area is in a city, suburb, town or rural community, with three subdivisions of the four larger categories. Using NCES IDs, categorical data was added to the OCR data which has information on chronic absenteeism.</p>
<p>In many parts of the country, school districts and county lines are not the same. Chronic absenteeism by county was calculated using a weighted average. School districts are allowed to not submit data if there are too few students for privacy concerns and there data is flagged in the system with negative chronic absenteeism number. All of these schools were filtered out. In addition, since chronic absenteeism data was first collected for the 2013-14 school year, many schools previously collect the data or had a different standard than the 15 days of this report and thus did not report any data, or zero chronic absent students. These schools were also filtered out.</p>
<pre class="box-code"><code><em><span style="color: #999988;">#calculate absenteeism by county - use weighted average</span></em>
countyName1 <span style="color: #687687;">&lt;-</span> group_by<span style="color: #687687;">(</span>OCRdata, LEA_STATE) <span style="color: #687687;">%&gt;%</span> group_by<span style="color: #687687;">(</span>CONAME, FIPS<span style="color: #687687;">)</span>
countyName1 <span style="color: #687687;">&lt;-</span> mutate<span style="color: #687687;">(</span>countyName1, countyEnroll = sum<span style="color: #687687;">(</span>TOT_ENR_M + TOT_ENR_F<span style="color: #687687;">))</span>
countyName1 <span style="color: #687687;">&lt;-</span> mutate<span style="color: #687687;">(</span>countyName1, schoolAbsent = sum<span style="color: #687687;">(</span>TOT_ABSENT_M + TOT_ABSENT_F<span style="color: #687687;">))</span>
countyName1 <span style="color: #687687;">&lt;-</span> filter<span style="color: #687687;">(</span>countyName1, schoolAbsent <span style="color: #687687;">&gt;</span> <span style="color: #009999;">0</span><span style="color: #687687;">)</span>
countyName1 <span style="color: #687687;">&lt;-</span> mutate<span style="color: #687687;">(</span>countyName1, countyAbsentPer = schoolAbsent/countyEnroll<span style="color: #687687;">)</span>
countyName3 <span style="color: #687687;">&lt;-</span>unique<span style="color: #687687;">(</span>countyName1<span style="color: #687687;">[</span>c<span style="color: #687687;">(</span>"<span style="color: #dd1144;">LEA_STATE</span>", "<span style="color: #dd1144;">CONAME</span>", "<span style="color: #dd1144;">FIPS</span>", "<span style="color: #dd1144;">countyEnroll</span>", "<span style="color: #dd1144;">schoolAbsent</span>",  "<span style="color: #dd1144;">countyAbsentPer</span>", "<span style="color: #dd1144;">LOCALE</span>"<span style="color: #687687;">)]</span>, na.rm= <span style="color: #990073;">TRUE</span><span style="color: #687687;">)</span></code></pre>
<pre class="box-code"><code>OpioidData <span style="color: #687687;">&lt;-</span> read_xlsx<span style="color: #687687;">(</span>"OpioidCountyData.xlsx"<span style="color: #687687;">)</span>
OpioidData1 <span style="color: #687687;">&lt;-</span> select<span style="color: #687687;">(</span>OpioidData, State, FIPS, FullCountyName, PrescribingRate<span style="color: #687687;">)</span>
OpioidData1$PrescribingRate <span style="color: #687687;">&lt;-</span> as.numeric<span style="color: #687687;">(</span><span style="color: #dd1144;">OpioidData1$PrescribingRate</span><span style="color: #687687;">)</span></code></pre>
<pre class="style-two"><code>## Warning: NAs introduced by coercion</code></pre>
<pre class="box-code"><code>OpioidData1 <span style="color: #687687;">&lt;-</span> na.omit<span style="color: #687687;">(</span>OpioidData1<span style="color: #687687;">)</span>
OpioidData1 <span style="color: #687687;">&lt;-</span> filter<span style="color: #687687;">(</span>OpioidData1, OpioidData1$PrescribingRate <span style="color: #687687;">&gt;</span> <span style="color: #009999;">0</span><span style="color: #687687;">)</span></code></pre>
<p>The opioid data was added to OCR data. There were 273 counties with NA values and another two counties with a zero reported prescription rate. Both categories were filtered out. The entire country was graphed. As you can see there is a positive trend line indicating there is a relationship between the two crises.</p>
<pre class="box-code"><code>countyName3 <span style="color: #687687;">&lt;-</span> merge<span style="color: #687687;">(</span>countyName3, OpioidData1, by.x = "<span style="color: #dd1144;">FIPS</span>", by.y = "<span style="color: #dd1144;">FIPS</span>"<span style="color: #687687;">)</span></code></pre>
<p>The entire country was graphed. As you can see there is a positive trend line indicating there is a relationship between the two crises.</p>
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						<div class="fusion-text"><p>It was then decided to look at the national data broken down by individual state.</p>
<pre class="box-code"><code>#graph data by state
graphColors &lt;- brewer.pal(<span style="color: #009999;">6</span>, "<span style="color: #dd1144;">Paired</span>")
g &lt;- ggplot(countyName3, aes(x = PrescribingRate, y = countyAbsentPer))
g + geom_point(alpha = <span style="color: #009999;">.10</span>, color = "<span style="color: #dd1144;">steelblue</span>") +
      facet_wrap(~State, nrow = <span style="color: #009999;">5</span>) +
      xlim(<span style="color: #009999;">0</span>, <span style="color: #009999;">300</span>) +
      ylim(<span style="color: #009999;">0</span>, <span style="color: #009999;">.7</span>) +        
      geom_smooth(method ="<span style="color: #dd1144;">lm</span>", color = "<span style="color: #dd1144;">red</span>", na.rm = <span style="color: #990073;">TRUE</span>, se = <span style="color: #990073;">FALSE</span>) +
      xlab("<span style="color: #dd1144;">2016 Opioid Prescribing Rate by County (per hundred  people)</span>") +
      ylab("<span style="color: #dd1144;">2013-14 Student Absentee Rate by County (weighted average)</span>") +
      theme(axis.text.x = element_text(color="<span style="color: #dd1144;">black</span>", size=<span style="color: #009999;">6</span>, angle=<span style="color: #009999;">45</span>)) +        
      ggtitle("<span style="color: #dd1144;">Comparison of Student Chronic Absenteeism &amp; Opioid Prescription Rates</span>")</code></pre>
<pre><code class="style-two">## Warning: Removed 3 rows containing missing values (geom_point).</code></pre>
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						<div class="fusion-text"><p>In conclusion, this preliminary data indicates that the opioid prescription crisis and school chronic absenteeism crises are related and have unfortunately, a positive relationship. However, more research will be needed to understand this relationship. Future blog posts will continue to study this topic in greater detail and with other variables.</p>
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